Well the FTSE All Share ended 1.7% down for the week, so lets take a look at how the two accounts performed during the same time.
Account 1: Pro tips strategy account
I had plenty of stops taken out during the week in this account as I've already mentioned. The account decreased its value by -2.5% this week to £1737, it could have been alot worse aswell so overall I'm not too concerned really. Didn't buy any of the pro recommendations this week as most of them were stocks I already have positions in or I considered the risk was just too high because of the high value of the shares recommended wouldnt allow me to have proper stops in place. I do have some possible trades lined up for this account over the coming 5 days though. Available free trading funds have now increased to £400 in this account.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
I just realised that last weeks figure was a typo, I had written that the account had gone from 1136 to 1331 "just £5 down on last week". Of course that figure was meant to read 1131 NOT 1331 (I've edited last weeks post now to reflect that change). The account fell again by around 4% to £1083. I had one losing trade all week which was in Partygaming. All the rest that stopped out actually banked a profit so I can't complain. The decrease in the FTSE brought some of my positions down hence I cant be too concerned with this weeks results.
I had a few positions end prematurely this week which I was dissapointed with. This has caused me to re-evaluate my auto trailing stops. I've decided to completely abandon auto trailing stops and go with manually adjusted stops once a week. This gives me more time to re-evaluate positions over a weekend plus gives a share price the proper opportunity to move up and down naturally during the week without triggering automatic trailing stops that have just nudged up higher as the price action suddenly drops.
On one particular share I missed a 20% share price rise on the day after it had stopped out because of the automatic trailing stop.
Hopefully this is something that will improve the account slightly. I'm still learning really and slowly tweaking things here and there should increase potential returns.
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Thursday, 20 January 2011
Todays a good example...
..of why you need to have trailing stops in place! The FTSE dropped nearly 2% in todays trading session, and I saw no less than 10 of my positions in 'account 1' (pro share tips account) get stopped out. Some got stopped out for decent overall profits but some were also losing positions. I can't be too down about it though, the market has been kind to my accounts over the last few weeks and it couldn't and wouldn't continue like that forever.
In fact todays post was going to be about two positions that had that stopped out yesterday 'prematurely'. They had both risen fast during the day and come down just as fast towards the end of the days session and taken out both their trailing stops that I had in place on them. But overall their stock charts were showing both shares still in an overall uptrend so I was a bit gutted they had hit their trailing stops because in theory they still had some way to go... until today!
Funny how things turn out.
My post was going to be about the fact my default trailing stop on new positions is 2xATR (Average True Range). For those of you that are unsure, the ATR on a stock measures its volatility - this takes a stocks highs and lows over a set period based on values on an intraday, daily, weekly or monthly period. The default period is 14 but I lean more towards 10 and use it on daily graphs. This value therefore gives me an average of how much a stock has moved over the last 10 days. Usually the value doesnt change too dramatically if you increase the period from 10 to 14 anyway. So like I said, I tend to have my trailing stop setup as 2xATR on a stock, e.g. a stock at 100p may have an daily ATR of 6p, hence my default trailing stop (2xATR) will be at 88p when I first establish the position. *Phew*
Anyway my point being (yes there is one!) I noticed recently that sometimes when a stock gets some good news (like William Hill did yesterday) and the price suddenly spikes due to increased buying, the trailing stop of 2xATR doesnt seem to be enough when that buying action settles down and the price drops. i.e. the last few weeks of its average daily range just goes out the window! It doesnt really concern me when the price doesnt drop that same day because I manually check my stops most evenings and I can see positions that are close to stopping out - It is the stocks that drop that same day whilst I am not watching my positions that are sometimes getting stopped out unnecessarily because of a price spike. I may have to start looking at the daily biggest winners list at Yahoo Finance during my lunch hour just to check if one of my shares has suddenly skyrocketed in price. Then if needs be I can check that the ATR hasnt suddenly doubled in value.
So from being very dissapointed with those 2 positions being taken out prematurely last night, obviously I end up looking like a hero because the markets came down and both shares dropped today. Hence I banked my profits at exactly the right time... But it could have easily ended up going the other way and leaving me bitterly dissapointed. So if anyone has any suggestions on positioning stops other than multiplications of ATR then drop me a comment, I'd be interested at looking at this in a different way. Maybe even leaving a stop without a trail once its risen past 2xATR...
Anyway hold onto your trading seats because tomorrows market could be another bumpy ride!
In fact todays post was going to be about two positions that had that stopped out yesterday 'prematurely'. They had both risen fast during the day and come down just as fast towards the end of the days session and taken out both their trailing stops that I had in place on them. But overall their stock charts were showing both shares still in an overall uptrend so I was a bit gutted they had hit their trailing stops because in theory they still had some way to go... until today!
Funny how things turn out.
My post was going to be about the fact my default trailing stop on new positions is 2xATR (Average True Range). For those of you that are unsure, the ATR on a stock measures its volatility - this takes a stocks highs and lows over a set period based on values on an intraday, daily, weekly or monthly period. The default period is 14 but I lean more towards 10 and use it on daily graphs. This value therefore gives me an average of how much a stock has moved over the last 10 days. Usually the value doesnt change too dramatically if you increase the period from 10 to 14 anyway. So like I said, I tend to have my trailing stop setup as 2xATR on a stock, e.g. a stock at 100p may have an daily ATR of 6p, hence my default trailing stop (2xATR) will be at 88p when I first establish the position. *Phew*
Anyway my point being (yes there is one!) I noticed recently that sometimes when a stock gets some good news (like William Hill did yesterday) and the price suddenly spikes due to increased buying, the trailing stop of 2xATR doesnt seem to be enough when that buying action settles down and the price drops. i.e. the last few weeks of its average daily range just goes out the window! It doesnt really concern me when the price doesnt drop that same day because I manually check my stops most evenings and I can see positions that are close to stopping out - It is the stocks that drop that same day whilst I am not watching my positions that are sometimes getting stopped out unnecessarily because of a price spike. I may have to start looking at the daily biggest winners list at Yahoo Finance during my lunch hour just to check if one of my shares has suddenly skyrocketed in price. Then if needs be I can check that the ATR hasnt suddenly doubled in value.
So from being very dissapointed with those 2 positions being taken out prematurely last night, obviously I end up looking like a hero because the markets came down and both shares dropped today. Hence I banked my profits at exactly the right time... But it could have easily ended up going the other way and leaving me bitterly dissapointed. So if anyone has any suggestions on positioning stops other than multiplications of ATR then drop me a comment, I'd be interested at looking at this in a different way. Maybe even leaving a stop without a trail once its risen past 2xATR...
Anyway hold onto your trading seats because tomorrows market could be another bumpy ride!
Tuesday, 18 January 2011
New positions for the position trading account
After stating on Sundays post that I wasn't going to rush into any new trades in account 2, Monday presented me with no less than ten new opportunities for the position trading strategy!
I'm not going to list all of them here, but a couple of them were rebuys that had fallen below previously held stops. The FTSE fell by dinnertime so I made most of the new buys during my dinner hour within the Worldspreads account. Hopefully more than half of them will turn into profitable trades! Had a quick look last night and some of the spread bets had moved into profit.
Nothing new in the IG Index account (pro share tips) although one of the stocks jumped 21% yesterday but it was a small value AIM share so cant quite retire yet.
Hope some of you have caught some profitable trades and until next time, happy trading!.
I'm not going to list all of them here, but a couple of them were rebuys that had fallen below previously held stops. The FTSE fell by dinnertime so I made most of the new buys during my dinner hour within the Worldspreads account. Hopefully more than half of them will turn into profitable trades! Had a quick look last night and some of the spread bets had moved into profit.
Nothing new in the IG Index account (pro share tips) although one of the stocks jumped 21% yesterday but it was a small value AIM share so cant quite retire yet.
Hope some of you have caught some profitable trades and until next time, happy trading!.
Sunday, 16 January 2011
16/01/11 Accounts Roundup
Well the markets seem to end very slightly up for the week by a couple of points, so lets take a look at how the two accounts performed.
Account 1: Pro tips strategy account
I had a few stops during the week in this account but I pretty much covered those in my previous blog posts so wont repeat them here. The account increased its value by 7% this week to £1778.54, a bigger return than if it had just been in an all share tracker. Very pleased with this weeks figure.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
One of my two pyramids collapsed this week in Tribal Group. It still closed out for a profit but it was a shame to see it fail. It still worked out perfectly though, when the second position stopped out the first position more than covered the slight loss leaving an overall profit of £10 in place. The mechanism of pyramiding into a position means you can make alot of money on your 'winning horses' because of leveraging. Anyway this week the account flatlined and ended up on £1131 just £5 down on last week. I havent been able to establish any new positions this week and I think the account is suffering for it. But I'd rather not rush in and make trades just for the sake of it as that tends to end up being a losing strategy! I'm just sticking to the correct methodology and will continue to do so.
Ok well thats it for this week, hope you all catch some good trades over the next 5 days and I'll leave you with a graph.
Account 1: Pro tips strategy account
I had a few stops during the week in this account but I pretty much covered those in my previous blog posts so wont repeat them here. The account increased its value by 7% this week to £1778.54, a bigger return than if it had just been in an all share tracker. Very pleased with this weeks figure.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
One of my two pyramids collapsed this week in Tribal Group. It still closed out for a profit but it was a shame to see it fail. It still worked out perfectly though, when the second position stopped out the first position more than covered the slight loss leaving an overall profit of £10 in place. The mechanism of pyramiding into a position means you can make alot of money on your 'winning horses' because of leveraging. Anyway this week the account flatlined and ended up on £1131 just £5 down on last week. I havent been able to establish any new positions this week and I think the account is suffering for it. But I'd rather not rush in and make trades just for the sake of it as that tends to end up being a losing strategy! I'm just sticking to the correct methodology and will continue to do so.
Ok well thats it for this week, hope you all catch some good trades over the next 5 days and I'll leave you with a graph.
Saturday, 15 January 2011
Position Trading Second Edition
Some of you will know that I am spread betting with two different strategies, one of the two spread betting strategies I am running on this blog is the Tony Loton's 'position trading strategy'. The strategy is outlined and explained in great detail in his position trading book - a simple but very effective way of trading. Well I'm pleased to see that he has just published his second edition of this book and it is still an excellent read. It includes new more detailed information plus an update on his publicly traded portfolio amongst other bits and pieces. I still think that it is an excellent system for spread betting and I have updated the link to the book on amazon over on the right there or you can click here to purchase it at a very good price. For those of you who havent got around to reading it yet I suggest you pick up a copy straight away. For those of you that own a copy of the first edition I still think it is worth buying just so you can read it and refresh yourself with the position trading strategy. I have just finished it and its good to remind yourself of every aspect of the system and at that price its a steal. It may not make you rich but it will definately enable you to improve your spread betting tenfold.
I had a couple of stops hit on the accounts yesterday as the market dropped a little towards mid-day. In account 1 the position in Fenner plc that I only just established on Wednesday hit its stop, but for a profit of £15 - looking at the share graph it seems it shot up the very next day but came down again pretty rapidly and because my trailing stop had moved up it got taken out quite early. Still a win is a win!
In account 2 (Tonys strategy) I had another stop trigger in 888, for another profit of £20. Thankfully most of my stops over the last couple of weeks have been for 'locked in' profitable trades, which is one of the major parts of the overall position trading strategy.
The FTSE 100 ended just over the 6k mark so up for the week very slightly, The FTSE all share index ended up on 3115 so again up for the week. I'll post my usual weekly roundup figures tomorrow - for now I'm going to go check my accounts and adjust stops ready for Mondays open.
I had a couple of stops hit on the accounts yesterday as the market dropped a little towards mid-day. In account 1 the position in Fenner plc that I only just established on Wednesday hit its stop, but for a profit of £15 - looking at the share graph it seems it shot up the very next day but came down again pretty rapidly and because my trailing stop had moved up it got taken out quite early. Still a win is a win!
In account 2 (Tonys strategy) I had another stop trigger in 888, for another profit of £20. Thankfully most of my stops over the last couple of weeks have been for 'locked in' profitable trades, which is one of the major parts of the overall position trading strategy.
The FTSE 100 ended just over the 6k mark so up for the week very slightly, The FTSE all share index ended up on 3115 so again up for the week. I'll post my usual weekly roundup figures tomorrow - for now I'm going to go check my accounts and adjust stops ready for Mondays open.
Wednesday, 12 January 2011
Share tips: 12/01/10
A very quick post as I'm still fighting against office deadlines! Yes I'm still in the office at 9pm.
I promised to come back if I made any new trades on the Pro share tips account so here they are in no particular order:
Melrose Resources Plc @249.62
Northern Foods Plc @60.15
Beacon Hill Resources Plc @18.30 (£5 per point)
Antisoma Plc @6.2 (£5 per point)
Ascent Resources PLC @9.2 (£5 per point)
Fenner Plc @353.78
A few £5 per point trades there, as I posted before alot of AIM shares at IG Index are now at a minimum £5 per point so I took Alans advice on board and gone with the AIM share tips but with stops that are still within my account risk tolerance even at £5 per point. Plus the fact that the penny shares have to move a hell of a lot to make any money at £1 per point.
Trade well guys!!
I promised to come back if I made any new trades on the Pro share tips account so here they are in no particular order:
Melrose Resources Plc @249.62
Northern Foods Plc @60.15
Beacon Hill Resources Plc @18.30 (£5 per point)
Antisoma Plc @6.2 (£5 per point)
Ascent Resources PLC @9.2 (£5 per point)
Fenner Plc @353.78
A few £5 per point trades there, as I posted before alot of AIM shares at IG Index are now at a minimum £5 per point so I took Alans advice on board and gone with the AIM share tips but with stops that are still within my account risk tolerance even at £5 per point. Plus the fact that the penny shares have to move a hell of a lot to make any money at £1 per point.
Trade well guys!!
Tuesday, 11 January 2011
2 stops - 1 bad, 1 good.
The market fell a little yesterday and as a result I had 2 stops, 1 in each account. In Account 1 my position in 'Fenner Plc' closed out with a loss of £9. In account 2 my position in 'Thomas Cook' hit its stop loss but for a profit of £14. No new positions established so far this week. I've received some share tips but with the market on the rise today I need to make sure I dont pay over the recommended prices for them before I purchase. I'll keep you informed if I go through with any.
Happy trading!
Happy trading!
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