After nearly 6 months of trading 2 accounts I have made the decision to wrap up this blog. A few reasons have swayed my decision really:
(i) My business has recently taken off again over the last few weeks, and after the lull before Christmas and 2010 not being that great for my industry I need to make hay whilst the sun shines. I've now worked every day including weekends for the last 5 weeks, and its going to continue like this for the foreseeable future (thankfully I guess!) and running the 2 accounts just for the very few people who actually read the site is putting me under a little extra pressure.
(ii) Not enough interest to make it worthwhile. Its been great having Tony Loton pop here and leave a comment every so often because I'm running his position trading strategy, but overall the site gets few hits and I've come to notice that even the bigger spread betting sites hardly get any visitors. Maybe spread betting is more of a lonesome wolf activity! There's not much of a community out there, unlike other investment related activities such as share dealing and even poker. I think Tony is one person who can appreciate that running a public portfolio sometimes goes against the best interests of a strategy.
(iii) I have begun to hate the IG Index software. I hate not being able to instantly see my current positions profit and loss without downloading months of excel spreadsheets. Why should I have to, every other spread betting firm out there shows me this info so why cant IG?!! Customer services didn't want to know about it when I rang them. So I'd like to withdraw my funds from IG and go elsewhere meaning the pro share tips account would be on a temporary break.
(iv) Because of the extra time constraints I'm currently under I'd like to just concentrate on 1 account so I can research trades on an evening properly without rushing. That includes consolidating the funds from both current accounts into the one account.
Anyway, rather than just disappear into the ether and never post again I thought I would at least conclude things. But I wont vanish without updating the figures for this week, so here goes:
As you know the FTSE went through all kinds of trouble this week, 4% market swings, Libya unrest and LSE problems made for an interesting week. Both accounts fell for the week but here are the exact figures.
Account 1: Pro tips strategy account
The pro tips account hit a ton of stops, 22 to be exact! Thankfully all the stops were relatively close so as to keep my risk within tolerance, even still the account lost 6% in value and ended the week on £1588.01. It currently only has 17 open trades active now. Final figure +59% return on investment.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
This account took a bigger than usual hit, as I couldn't have chosen a worse week to pyramid into 8 more positions. It hit stops galore on Weds and Thursday, each of them losing nearly 1% of the account at a time. Current positions that were showing decent profits also fell to add to the woe. So all in all the account fell 16% to £1095.56 I guess that's the power of leverage! Final figure +10% return on investment.
So there we have it, I hate having to pull the plug on a unusual week that ended in a downer for both accounts but I guess that's just the way it goes. The only thing we know about the market is that it will keep moving! Both final figures are still way above the return you would make on any current savings ISA account.
Thanks to everyone that's popped in, and if anyone ever wants to get in contact to see how things are going in my trading ventures use the email address on the right hand side.
Trade happy, trade well and I wish you all trading success!
'Spreadbettingtrader'
Sunday 27 February 2011
Monday 21 February 2011
Walk like an Egyptian!
After reading the pdf over on spread betting beginners forum (see yesterdays post), I think I finally got my head around when to start pyramiding into positions within my own account. So I reassessed my current open profitable positions and this morning I pyramid into 8 of them! Obviously by the end of play today the market dropped around 1% but not everday will be like this and fingers crossed a couple of those new pyramids will end up replicating my most successful one in ITV.
Like I mentioned before I think the aspect of when to pyramid has held me back a little with the position trading strategy, so sometimes I feel it may be showing a little less profit than maybe it should. Hopefully I will remedy that with my new found pyramiding confidence! Obviously it wont all be silver linings, as pyramiding into positions means I can now lose money twice as fast, but if I want to make any money in this spread betting malarky then I need to grab the cash cow by both horns and build that pyramid when my winning positions are edging ahead. The trend is your friend as they say!
No new sharetip trades for account 1 and no brand new positions established in account 2 either, but I have my eye on a trade in M&S for tomorrow - it fell again today and is nearly at a very long term support level, so I think I will get in there and see if it bounces straight off it for some quick profit with a pretty decent upside.
Happy trading!
Like I mentioned before I think the aspect of when to pyramid has held me back a little with the position trading strategy, so sometimes I feel it may be showing a little less profit than maybe it should. Hopefully I will remedy that with my new found pyramiding confidence! Obviously it wont all be silver linings, as pyramiding into positions means I can now lose money twice as fast, but if I want to make any money in this spread betting malarky then I need to grab the cash cow by both horns and build that pyramid when my winning positions are edging ahead. The trend is your friend as they say!
No new sharetip trades for account 1 and no brand new positions established in account 2 either, but I have my eye on a trade in M&S for tomorrow - it fell again today and is nearly at a very long term support level, so I think I will get in there and see if it bounces straight off it for some quick profit with a pretty decent upside.
Happy trading!
Sunday 20 February 2011
20/02/2011 Accounts Roundup
Well a very slight gain in the FTSE All Share Index for this week means it pretty much flatlined, so lets see how both accounts fared.
Account 1: Pro tips strategy account
I reported last week that I was going to establish positions in 4 shares on Monday mornings trading. I managed to place positions in 3 out of the 4 due to the spread on Majestic Wines price being far too wide for some reason. I kept checking up on it during the week but the spread remained too wide so I abandoned a trade in that share tip. I did however place 3 more share tip trades on Friday in SVG Capital, DS Smith and Ladbrokes.
The week saw 4 stops hit for losses of around £60 but the account actually grew very slightly to £1695.98 a 1% overall increase.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
After last weeks very good return, this week saw 6 stops get hit which chipped away at the previous weeks account profits even though 2 of the stops were for a small return. Some of the account grew very slightly to offset some of those losses, but most of the positions had a pretty flat week. Account ends up at £1306.74, which is a 1% fall on last weeks figure.
This week I saw a very interesting post over on spread betting beginners forum about the original Turtle Traders and the trend following rules that they followed. It was good reading for me as I have always had a problem about when to pyramid into an existing position, and this article explains the methods which the famous group of traders were using whilst doing their trial. I cant adopt any of their original trading strategies as both my accounts have very strict rules established already obviously, but I feel I can adapt this 'mechanical' method for my own pyramids, which takes out any emotional aspect of when to place a trade. I only have 3 pyramids active at the moment in Account 2, and I'm certain that I should have more in place right now which would mean more profit for the account. Well worth a read when you have the time.
That's it for this week, I'm off now to search for valid trades for tomorrows open. Wish you all a good trading week!
Account 1: Pro tips strategy account
I reported last week that I was going to establish positions in 4 shares on Monday mornings trading. I managed to place positions in 3 out of the 4 due to the spread on Majestic Wines price being far too wide for some reason. I kept checking up on it during the week but the spread remained too wide so I abandoned a trade in that share tip. I did however place 3 more share tip trades on Friday in SVG Capital, DS Smith and Ladbrokes.
The week saw 4 stops hit for losses of around £60 but the account actually grew very slightly to £1695.98 a 1% overall increase.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
After last weeks very good return, this week saw 6 stops get hit which chipped away at the previous weeks account profits even though 2 of the stops were for a small return. Some of the account grew very slightly to offset some of those losses, but most of the positions had a pretty flat week. Account ends up at £1306.74, which is a 1% fall on last weeks figure.
This week I saw a very interesting post over on spread betting beginners forum about the original Turtle Traders and the trend following rules that they followed. It was good reading for me as I have always had a problem about when to pyramid into an existing position, and this article explains the methods which the famous group of traders were using whilst doing their trial. I cant adopt any of their original trading strategies as both my accounts have very strict rules established already obviously, but I feel I can adapt this 'mechanical' method for my own pyramids, which takes out any emotional aspect of when to place a trade. I only have 3 pyramids active at the moment in Account 2, and I'm certain that I should have more in place right now which would mean more profit for the account. Well worth a read when you have the time.
That's it for this week, I'm off now to search for valid trades for tomorrows open. Wish you all a good trading week!
Sunday 13 February 2011
13/02/2011 Accounts Roundup
Well the FTSE All Share Index saw a 1% increase for the week despite the turmoil in Egypt trying to spoil things. There were plenty of ups and downs during this time and a few new trades, so without further ado here is this weeks accounts roundup.
Account 1: Pro tips strategy account
A completely breakeven week for this account, it was actually looking like the account was going to fall for the second week running but thanks to Fridays trading it fought back to £1678.30, about £5 up on last weeks figure. I havent been able to take many of the share tips recently due to them being either too high in valuation or them being £5 per point AIM shares where my stop would have been to far over my acceptable risk. However I have got 4 new trades lined up to execute tomorrow, for those that are interested these are in Gulfsands Petroleum, Travelzest(an AIM share), Majestic Wines and Tesco.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
A great week for the position trading account, a couple of long term positions took off plus a couple of new trades that I established near their long term support levels immediately sprung off to give the account a nice 12.5% boost this week to £1319.26. Quite a few trades now are finally in the green and infact I would have been another £30 better off if I hadn't have accidentally closed a trade during a misclick! These things happen when you try rushing trades. I havent actually got my eye on any new trades for the start of tomorrow but I'll keep assessing the markets after close each day to pick out viable options.
Anyway I thought I'd close todays post with a graph as I havent shown one in a while. So thanks for dropping by and trade well next week!
Account 1: Pro tips strategy account
A completely breakeven week for this account, it was actually looking like the account was going to fall for the second week running but thanks to Fridays trading it fought back to £1678.30, about £5 up on last weeks figure. I havent been able to take many of the share tips recently due to them being either too high in valuation or them being £5 per point AIM shares where my stop would have been to far over my acceptable risk. However I have got 4 new trades lined up to execute tomorrow, for those that are interested these are in Gulfsands Petroleum, Travelzest(an AIM share), Majestic Wines and Tesco.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
A great week for the position trading account, a couple of long term positions took off plus a couple of new trades that I established near their long term support levels immediately sprung off to give the account a nice 12.5% boost this week to £1319.26. Quite a few trades now are finally in the green and infact I would have been another £30 better off if I hadn't have accidentally closed a trade during a misclick! These things happen when you try rushing trades. I havent actually got my eye on any new trades for the start of tomorrow but I'll keep assessing the markets after close each day to pick out viable options.
Anyway I thought I'd close todays post with a graph as I havent shown one in a while. So thanks for dropping by and trade well next week!
Sunday 6 February 2011
06/02/2011 Accounts Roundup
Going to jump straight into the results for this week as I'm snowed under with day job deadlines!
Account 1: Pro tips strategy account
This account took a bit of a battering, a few of the share tips I received stopped out almost immediately when the market dipped a couple of days during the week. Wasn't great as each one racked up losses of around £25 a time which soon added up. I've taken a look at my existing open positions and I've only managed to move stops upwards on around 3 of them out of 36 in total. I did receive some share tips on Friday but I was out of my office for the day so I will be establishing some more positions on Monday. The account has around £300 of free trading resources.
So a breakeven week in the markets but with a 6% drop in this account the balance now stands at £1672.53.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
I actually had 2 trades stop out this week giving me over £110 in combined profit which I was pretty chuffed about. However I also had quite a few stops of between £10-£15 practically wiping out that profit which was dissapointing. In fact on Thursday I had 3 trades stop out - McBride for a loss of £14, Pace for a profit of £14, and National Grid stopped at £0 for a total breakeven trade and breakeven day, spooky times! It was that kind of week though.
I've made several new trades, some of which have jumped to immediate profits. Remember my pyramid into ITV a few weeks back? It still holding up and thanks to a 5 point jump on Friday its added another £10 in accumulated profit. It may also mean that I establish another £1 per point into it very soon. Got to keep backing those winners!
So the account now has 35 open positions, and I've managed to manually move 7 of the stops upwards to lock in more profit/reduce losses. The account balance is now showing as £1173.05 a 3% increase on last weeks figure, so despite a few stops losing money its nice to see the account still grew. Another example of why tight exploratory stops are needed when you first establish a position.
Catch you next time, trade well guys!
Account 1: Pro tips strategy account
This account took a bit of a battering, a few of the share tips I received stopped out almost immediately when the market dipped a couple of days during the week. Wasn't great as each one racked up losses of around £25 a time which soon added up. I've taken a look at my existing open positions and I've only managed to move stops upwards on around 3 of them out of 36 in total. I did receive some share tips on Friday but I was out of my office for the day so I will be establishing some more positions on Monday. The account has around £300 of free trading resources.
So a breakeven week in the markets but with a 6% drop in this account the balance now stands at £1672.53.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
I actually had 2 trades stop out this week giving me over £110 in combined profit which I was pretty chuffed about. However I also had quite a few stops of between £10-£15 practically wiping out that profit which was dissapointing. In fact on Thursday I had 3 trades stop out - McBride for a loss of £14, Pace for a profit of £14, and National Grid stopped at £0 for a total breakeven trade and breakeven day, spooky times! It was that kind of week though.
I've made several new trades, some of which have jumped to immediate profits. Remember my pyramid into ITV a few weeks back? It still holding up and thanks to a 5 point jump on Friday its added another £10 in accumulated profit. It may also mean that I establish another £1 per point into it very soon. Got to keep backing those winners!
So the account now has 35 open positions, and I've managed to manually move 7 of the stops upwards to lock in more profit/reduce losses. The account balance is now showing as £1173.05 a 3% increase on last weeks figure, so despite a few stops losing money its nice to see the account still grew. Another example of why tight exploratory stops are needed when you first establish a position.
Catch you next time, trade well guys!
Sunday 30 January 2011
30/01/2011 Accounts Roundup
Well January draws to a close, and the FTSE All Share Index ended pretty much where it left off last week. So what happened to my accounts during that time?
Account 1: Pro tips strategy account
I established 12 new positions during the week and only suffered 4 stops. One of the stops hit was for one of the positions I had established this week, so a very quick loss on that particular share. But despite the market flatlining I have managed to manually raise my trailing stops on 12 positions within the account, locking in a little bit more profit for each of them. The value of the account ended up at £1768.86, a 1.5% increase on last weeks figure, approx +£30.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
Despite having my eye on quite a few new opportunities at the beginning of the week only 5 of them became new positions within this account. I only suffered the one stop this week, a position in Partygaming just stopped out then of course rebounded very slightly the following day. Isn't that usually the case? I can't really complain as one of the 5 has already brought in a £50 profit in 2 days of trading so I have managed to lock in £25 of that as guaranteed profit - well guaranteed as long as I don't suffer any slippage...
Anyway the account increased by 5% to £1138.92 so its going in the right direction. I've managed to move trailing stops on 9 of the existing positions to lock in profit and free up more trading capital, although there is currently £650 available so no shortage of funds to worry about as yet.
Depending on how the market continues to react next week to those poor GDP figures will pretty much dictate what happens in both accounts. I was lucky enough to read 3 of Tony Lotons books before I begun live spread betting. I learnt the importance of stops and money management before I placed my first trade. In that respect I haven't had to learn from the 'School of hard knocks', Tony did that for me! Every one of my positions have very strict stops applied to them, so if Mr Market does want to go on a downswing I won't be wiped out I will 'live to trade another day' as Tony states. I haven't yet lost money on spread betting, before I started these 2 public accounts I ran my first £500 account up to just over £800 before withdrawing purely practising the position trading strategy. I'm pretty certain that the first account would have been a failure if I hadn't read those books beforehand. Tonys book over on the right hand side there called "Stop Orders" is invaluable reading and I suggest you pick up a copy, especially if you haven't started live trading yet. Without money management and stops in place then your trading strategy will never have an edge.
This account is run on the Worldspreads platform - I recently posted on a spread betting forum that I have now been getting referrals on every trade I try to place. This means that when you click the 'buy' button I get a box that pops up saying 'trade refferal' and someone at the spread betting company is manually approving my trades before it goes through. Thing is, on a couple of the trades I haven't been given the price that I saw when I pressed the 'buy' button because it can take around 10-20 seconds to complete. Only maybe +1 or +2 on the spread, but still slightly annoying.
Someone replied to my forum query and said that he guessed I wasn't a losing trader because losers don't get referrals. So in a round about way I guess I'm currently being classed as a 'winner' by Worldspreads and not sure if they like it. I'll give them a buzz about it during this week and ask them why...
Anyway that's enough for today, Trade well guys!
Account 1: Pro tips strategy account
I established 12 new positions during the week and only suffered 4 stops. One of the stops hit was for one of the positions I had established this week, so a very quick loss on that particular share. But despite the market flatlining I have managed to manually raise my trailing stops on 12 positions within the account, locking in a little bit more profit for each of them. The value of the account ended up at £1768.86, a 1.5% increase on last weeks figure, approx +£30.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
Despite having my eye on quite a few new opportunities at the beginning of the week only 5 of them became new positions within this account. I only suffered the one stop this week, a position in Partygaming just stopped out then of course rebounded very slightly the following day. Isn't that usually the case? I can't really complain as one of the 5 has already brought in a £50 profit in 2 days of trading so I have managed to lock in £25 of that as guaranteed profit - well guaranteed as long as I don't suffer any slippage...
Anyway the account increased by 5% to £1138.92 so its going in the right direction. I've managed to move trailing stops on 9 of the existing positions to lock in profit and free up more trading capital, although there is currently £650 available so no shortage of funds to worry about as yet.
Depending on how the market continues to react next week to those poor GDP figures will pretty much dictate what happens in both accounts. I was lucky enough to read 3 of Tony Lotons books before I begun live spread betting. I learnt the importance of stops and money management before I placed my first trade. In that respect I haven't had to learn from the 'School of hard knocks', Tony did that for me! Every one of my positions have very strict stops applied to them, so if Mr Market does want to go on a downswing I won't be wiped out I will 'live to trade another day' as Tony states. I haven't yet lost money on spread betting, before I started these 2 public accounts I ran my first £500 account up to just over £800 before withdrawing purely practising the position trading strategy. I'm pretty certain that the first account would have been a failure if I hadn't read those books beforehand. Tonys book over on the right hand side there called "Stop Orders" is invaluable reading and I suggest you pick up a copy, especially if you haven't started live trading yet. Without money management and stops in place then your trading strategy will never have an edge.
This account is run on the Worldspreads platform - I recently posted on a spread betting forum that I have now been getting referrals on every trade I try to place. This means that when you click the 'buy' button I get a box that pops up saying 'trade refferal' and someone at the spread betting company is manually approving my trades before it goes through. Thing is, on a couple of the trades I haven't been given the price that I saw when I pressed the 'buy' button because it can take around 10-20 seconds to complete. Only maybe +1 or +2 on the spread, but still slightly annoying.
Someone replied to my forum query and said that he guessed I wasn't a losing trader because losers don't get referrals. So in a round about way I guess I'm currently being classed as a 'winner' by Worldspreads and not sure if they like it. I'll give them a buzz about it during this week and ask them why...
Anyway that's enough for today, Trade well guys!
Tuesday 25 January 2011
Plenty of trading opportunities
With the FTSE doing somersaults over the last 48 hours there have been some good opportunities to spread bet in my position trading account. Over the last 2 days I have opened 8 new trades and have my eye on a few more as well. The account still has plenty of free trading resources available so if opportunities keep popping up then I will take them. Could be the kick start the account needs as recently new trades have been thin on the ground really.
I also executed quite a few of the pro share tips on account 1. Again some of them were too pricey for me to buy into but this week I've managed to buy most of them. Heres a list of some of them:
Trinity Mirror, GKN, SIG, Skywest Airlines, PZ Cussons, Scapa.
Bad GDP figures meant that the markets fell a little but ended up from their early day lows. Going to nip over to my portfolio now to see how my positions have done, and if necessary adjust any stops!
Trade well!
I also executed quite a few of the pro share tips on account 1. Again some of them were too pricey for me to buy into but this week I've managed to buy most of them. Heres a list of some of them:
Trinity Mirror, GKN, SIG, Skywest Airlines, PZ Cussons, Scapa.
Bad GDP figures meant that the markets fell a little but ended up from their early day lows. Going to nip over to my portfolio now to see how my positions have done, and if necessary adjust any stops!
Trade well!
Sunday 23 January 2011
23/01/11 Accounts Roundup
Well the FTSE All Share ended 1.7% down for the week, so lets take a look at how the two accounts performed during the same time.
Account 1: Pro tips strategy account
I had plenty of stops taken out during the week in this account as I've already mentioned. The account decreased its value by -2.5% this week to £1737, it could have been alot worse aswell so overall I'm not too concerned really. Didn't buy any of the pro recommendations this week as most of them were stocks I already have positions in or I considered the risk was just too high because of the high value of the shares recommended wouldnt allow me to have proper stops in place. I do have some possible trades lined up for this account over the coming 5 days though. Available free trading funds have now increased to £400 in this account.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
I just realised that last weeks figure was a typo, I had written that the account had gone from 1136 to 1331 "just £5 down on last week". Of course that figure was meant to read 1131 NOT 1331 (I've edited last weeks post now to reflect that change). The account fell again by around 4% to £1083. I had one losing trade all week which was in Partygaming. All the rest that stopped out actually banked a profit so I can't complain. The decrease in the FTSE brought some of my positions down hence I cant be too concerned with this weeks results.
I had a few positions end prematurely this week which I was dissapointed with. This has caused me to re-evaluate my auto trailing stops. I've decided to completely abandon auto trailing stops and go with manually adjusted stops once a week. This gives me more time to re-evaluate positions over a weekend plus gives a share price the proper opportunity to move up and down naturally during the week without triggering automatic trailing stops that have just nudged up higher as the price action suddenly drops.
On one particular share I missed a 20% share price rise on the day after it had stopped out because of the automatic trailing stop.
Hopefully this is something that will improve the account slightly. I'm still learning really and slowly tweaking things here and there should increase potential returns.
Account 1: Pro tips strategy account
I had plenty of stops taken out during the week in this account as I've already mentioned. The account decreased its value by -2.5% this week to £1737, it could have been alot worse aswell so overall I'm not too concerned really. Didn't buy any of the pro recommendations this week as most of them were stocks I already have positions in or I considered the risk was just too high because of the high value of the shares recommended wouldnt allow me to have proper stops in place. I do have some possible trades lined up for this account over the coming 5 days though. Available free trading funds have now increased to £400 in this account.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
I just realised that last weeks figure was a typo, I had written that the account had gone from 1136 to 1331 "just £5 down on last week". Of course that figure was meant to read 1131 NOT 1331 (I've edited last weeks post now to reflect that change). The account fell again by around 4% to £1083. I had one losing trade all week which was in Partygaming. All the rest that stopped out actually banked a profit so I can't complain. The decrease in the FTSE brought some of my positions down hence I cant be too concerned with this weeks results.
I had a few positions end prematurely this week which I was dissapointed with. This has caused me to re-evaluate my auto trailing stops. I've decided to completely abandon auto trailing stops and go with manually adjusted stops once a week. This gives me more time to re-evaluate positions over a weekend plus gives a share price the proper opportunity to move up and down naturally during the week without triggering automatic trailing stops that have just nudged up higher as the price action suddenly drops.
On one particular share I missed a 20% share price rise on the day after it had stopped out because of the automatic trailing stop.
Hopefully this is something that will improve the account slightly. I'm still learning really and slowly tweaking things here and there should increase potential returns.
Thursday 20 January 2011
Todays a good example...
..of why you need to have trailing stops in place! The FTSE dropped nearly 2% in todays trading session, and I saw no less than 10 of my positions in 'account 1' (pro share tips account) get stopped out. Some got stopped out for decent overall profits but some were also losing positions. I can't be too down about it though, the market has been kind to my accounts over the last few weeks and it couldn't and wouldn't continue like that forever.
In fact todays post was going to be about two positions that had that stopped out yesterday 'prematurely'. They had both risen fast during the day and come down just as fast towards the end of the days session and taken out both their trailing stops that I had in place on them. But overall their stock charts were showing both shares still in an overall uptrend so I was a bit gutted they had hit their trailing stops because in theory they still had some way to go... until today!
Funny how things turn out.
My post was going to be about the fact my default trailing stop on new positions is 2xATR (Average True Range). For those of you that are unsure, the ATR on a stock measures its volatility - this takes a stocks highs and lows over a set period based on values on an intraday, daily, weekly or monthly period. The default period is 14 but I lean more towards 10 and use it on daily graphs. This value therefore gives me an average of how much a stock has moved over the last 10 days. Usually the value doesnt change too dramatically if you increase the period from 10 to 14 anyway. So like I said, I tend to have my trailing stop setup as 2xATR on a stock, e.g. a stock at 100p may have an daily ATR of 6p, hence my default trailing stop (2xATR) will be at 88p when I first establish the position. *Phew*
Anyway my point being (yes there is one!) I noticed recently that sometimes when a stock gets some good news (like William Hill did yesterday) and the price suddenly spikes due to increased buying, the trailing stop of 2xATR doesnt seem to be enough when that buying action settles down and the price drops. i.e. the last few weeks of its average daily range just goes out the window! It doesnt really concern me when the price doesnt drop that same day because I manually check my stops most evenings and I can see positions that are close to stopping out - It is the stocks that drop that same day whilst I am not watching my positions that are sometimes getting stopped out unnecessarily because of a price spike. I may have to start looking at the daily biggest winners list at Yahoo Finance during my lunch hour just to check if one of my shares has suddenly skyrocketed in price. Then if needs be I can check that the ATR hasnt suddenly doubled in value.
So from being very dissapointed with those 2 positions being taken out prematurely last night, obviously I end up looking like a hero because the markets came down and both shares dropped today. Hence I banked my profits at exactly the right time... But it could have easily ended up going the other way and leaving me bitterly dissapointed. So if anyone has any suggestions on positioning stops other than multiplications of ATR then drop me a comment, I'd be interested at looking at this in a different way. Maybe even leaving a stop without a trail once its risen past 2xATR...
Anyway hold onto your trading seats because tomorrows market could be another bumpy ride!
In fact todays post was going to be about two positions that had that stopped out yesterday 'prematurely'. They had both risen fast during the day and come down just as fast towards the end of the days session and taken out both their trailing stops that I had in place on them. But overall their stock charts were showing both shares still in an overall uptrend so I was a bit gutted they had hit their trailing stops because in theory they still had some way to go... until today!
Funny how things turn out.
My post was going to be about the fact my default trailing stop on new positions is 2xATR (Average True Range). For those of you that are unsure, the ATR on a stock measures its volatility - this takes a stocks highs and lows over a set period based on values on an intraday, daily, weekly or monthly period. The default period is 14 but I lean more towards 10 and use it on daily graphs. This value therefore gives me an average of how much a stock has moved over the last 10 days. Usually the value doesnt change too dramatically if you increase the period from 10 to 14 anyway. So like I said, I tend to have my trailing stop setup as 2xATR on a stock, e.g. a stock at 100p may have an daily ATR of 6p, hence my default trailing stop (2xATR) will be at 88p when I first establish the position. *Phew*
Anyway my point being (yes there is one!) I noticed recently that sometimes when a stock gets some good news (like William Hill did yesterday) and the price suddenly spikes due to increased buying, the trailing stop of 2xATR doesnt seem to be enough when that buying action settles down and the price drops. i.e. the last few weeks of its average daily range just goes out the window! It doesnt really concern me when the price doesnt drop that same day because I manually check my stops most evenings and I can see positions that are close to stopping out - It is the stocks that drop that same day whilst I am not watching my positions that are sometimes getting stopped out unnecessarily because of a price spike. I may have to start looking at the daily biggest winners list at Yahoo Finance during my lunch hour just to check if one of my shares has suddenly skyrocketed in price. Then if needs be I can check that the ATR hasnt suddenly doubled in value.
So from being very dissapointed with those 2 positions being taken out prematurely last night, obviously I end up looking like a hero because the markets came down and both shares dropped today. Hence I banked my profits at exactly the right time... But it could have easily ended up going the other way and leaving me bitterly dissapointed. So if anyone has any suggestions on positioning stops other than multiplications of ATR then drop me a comment, I'd be interested at looking at this in a different way. Maybe even leaving a stop without a trail once its risen past 2xATR...
Anyway hold onto your trading seats because tomorrows market could be another bumpy ride!
Tuesday 18 January 2011
New positions for the position trading account
After stating on Sundays post that I wasn't going to rush into any new trades in account 2, Monday presented me with no less than ten new opportunities for the position trading strategy!
I'm not going to list all of them here, but a couple of them were rebuys that had fallen below previously held stops. The FTSE fell by dinnertime so I made most of the new buys during my dinner hour within the Worldspreads account. Hopefully more than half of them will turn into profitable trades! Had a quick look last night and some of the spread bets had moved into profit.
Nothing new in the IG Index account (pro share tips) although one of the stocks jumped 21% yesterday but it was a small value AIM share so cant quite retire yet.
Hope some of you have caught some profitable trades and until next time, happy trading!.
I'm not going to list all of them here, but a couple of them were rebuys that had fallen below previously held stops. The FTSE fell by dinnertime so I made most of the new buys during my dinner hour within the Worldspreads account. Hopefully more than half of them will turn into profitable trades! Had a quick look last night and some of the spread bets had moved into profit.
Nothing new in the IG Index account (pro share tips) although one of the stocks jumped 21% yesterday but it was a small value AIM share so cant quite retire yet.
Hope some of you have caught some profitable trades and until next time, happy trading!.
Sunday 16 January 2011
16/01/11 Accounts Roundup
Well the markets seem to end very slightly up for the week by a couple of points, so lets take a look at how the two accounts performed.
Account 1: Pro tips strategy account
I had a few stops during the week in this account but I pretty much covered those in my previous blog posts so wont repeat them here. The account increased its value by 7% this week to £1778.54, a bigger return than if it had just been in an all share tracker. Very pleased with this weeks figure.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
One of my two pyramids collapsed this week in Tribal Group. It still closed out for a profit but it was a shame to see it fail. It still worked out perfectly though, when the second position stopped out the first position more than covered the slight loss leaving an overall profit of £10 in place. The mechanism of pyramiding into a position means you can make alot of money on your 'winning horses' because of leveraging. Anyway this week the account flatlined and ended up on £1131 just £5 down on last week. I havent been able to establish any new positions this week and I think the account is suffering for it. But I'd rather not rush in and make trades just for the sake of it as that tends to end up being a losing strategy! I'm just sticking to the correct methodology and will continue to do so.
Ok well thats it for this week, hope you all catch some good trades over the next 5 days and I'll leave you with a graph.
Account 1: Pro tips strategy account
I had a few stops during the week in this account but I pretty much covered those in my previous blog posts so wont repeat them here. The account increased its value by 7% this week to £1778.54, a bigger return than if it had just been in an all share tracker. Very pleased with this weeks figure.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
One of my two pyramids collapsed this week in Tribal Group. It still closed out for a profit but it was a shame to see it fail. It still worked out perfectly though, when the second position stopped out the first position more than covered the slight loss leaving an overall profit of £10 in place. The mechanism of pyramiding into a position means you can make alot of money on your 'winning horses' because of leveraging. Anyway this week the account flatlined and ended up on £1131 just £5 down on last week. I havent been able to establish any new positions this week and I think the account is suffering for it. But I'd rather not rush in and make trades just for the sake of it as that tends to end up being a losing strategy! I'm just sticking to the correct methodology and will continue to do so.
Ok well thats it for this week, hope you all catch some good trades over the next 5 days and I'll leave you with a graph.
Saturday 15 January 2011
Position Trading Second Edition
Some of you will know that I am spread betting with two different strategies, one of the two spread betting strategies I am running on this blog is the Tony Loton's 'position trading strategy'. The strategy is outlined and explained in great detail in his position trading book - a simple but very effective way of trading. Well I'm pleased to see that he has just published his second edition of this book and it is still an excellent read. It includes new more detailed information plus an update on his publicly traded portfolio amongst other bits and pieces. I still think that it is an excellent system for spread betting and I have updated the link to the book on amazon over on the right there or you can click here to purchase it at a very good price. For those of you who havent got around to reading it yet I suggest you pick up a copy straight away. For those of you that own a copy of the first edition I still think it is worth buying just so you can read it and refresh yourself with the position trading strategy. I have just finished it and its good to remind yourself of every aspect of the system and at that price its a steal. It may not make you rich but it will definately enable you to improve your spread betting tenfold.
I had a couple of stops hit on the accounts yesterday as the market dropped a little towards mid-day. In account 1 the position in Fenner plc that I only just established on Wednesday hit its stop, but for a profit of £15 - looking at the share graph it seems it shot up the very next day but came down again pretty rapidly and because my trailing stop had moved up it got taken out quite early. Still a win is a win!
In account 2 (Tonys strategy) I had another stop trigger in 888, for another profit of £20. Thankfully most of my stops over the last couple of weeks have been for 'locked in' profitable trades, which is one of the major parts of the overall position trading strategy.
The FTSE 100 ended just over the 6k mark so up for the week very slightly, The FTSE all share index ended up on 3115 so again up for the week. I'll post my usual weekly roundup figures tomorrow - for now I'm going to go check my accounts and adjust stops ready for Mondays open.
I had a couple of stops hit on the accounts yesterday as the market dropped a little towards mid-day. In account 1 the position in Fenner plc that I only just established on Wednesday hit its stop, but for a profit of £15 - looking at the share graph it seems it shot up the very next day but came down again pretty rapidly and because my trailing stop had moved up it got taken out quite early. Still a win is a win!
In account 2 (Tonys strategy) I had another stop trigger in 888, for another profit of £20. Thankfully most of my stops over the last couple of weeks have been for 'locked in' profitable trades, which is one of the major parts of the overall position trading strategy.
The FTSE 100 ended just over the 6k mark so up for the week very slightly, The FTSE all share index ended up on 3115 so again up for the week. I'll post my usual weekly roundup figures tomorrow - for now I'm going to go check my accounts and adjust stops ready for Mondays open.
Wednesday 12 January 2011
Share tips: 12/01/10
A very quick post as I'm still fighting against office deadlines! Yes I'm still in the office at 9pm.
I promised to come back if I made any new trades on the Pro share tips account so here they are in no particular order:
Melrose Resources Plc @249.62
Northern Foods Plc @60.15
Beacon Hill Resources Plc @18.30 (£5 per point)
Antisoma Plc @6.2 (£5 per point)
Ascent Resources PLC @9.2 (£5 per point)
Fenner Plc @353.78
A few £5 per point trades there, as I posted before alot of AIM shares at IG Index are now at a minimum £5 per point so I took Alans advice on board and gone with the AIM share tips but with stops that are still within my account risk tolerance even at £5 per point. Plus the fact that the penny shares have to move a hell of a lot to make any money at £1 per point.
Trade well guys!!
I promised to come back if I made any new trades on the Pro share tips account so here they are in no particular order:
Melrose Resources Plc @249.62
Northern Foods Plc @60.15
Beacon Hill Resources Plc @18.30 (£5 per point)
Antisoma Plc @6.2 (£5 per point)
Ascent Resources PLC @9.2 (£5 per point)
Fenner Plc @353.78
A few £5 per point trades there, as I posted before alot of AIM shares at IG Index are now at a minimum £5 per point so I took Alans advice on board and gone with the AIM share tips but with stops that are still within my account risk tolerance even at £5 per point. Plus the fact that the penny shares have to move a hell of a lot to make any money at £1 per point.
Trade well guys!!
Tuesday 11 January 2011
2 stops - 1 bad, 1 good.
The market fell a little yesterday and as a result I had 2 stops, 1 in each account. In Account 1 my position in 'Fenner Plc' closed out with a loss of £9. In account 2 my position in 'Thomas Cook' hit its stop loss but for a profit of £14. No new positions established so far this week. I've received some share tips but with the market on the rise today I need to make sure I dont pay over the recommended prices for them before I purchase. I'll keep you informed if I go through with any.
Happy trading!
Happy trading!
Sunday 9 January 2011
09/01/11 Accounts Roundup
Bit of a topsy turvy week for the market this week as you all probably know. It couldnt really make up its mind and after a couple of good days it seemed to get hammered at the back end of the week after poor U.S. data.
Anyway heres a run down of how each of my accounts fared this week:
Account 1: Pro tips strategy account
I had a few stops during the week in this account, 6 in total actually (just had another peek) and all of them for losses albeit small losses well within my risk management rules. I made no new purchases due to not receiving any share tips during the week, I guess all the experts are still hungover from New Years.
Anyway the overall account value is now £1661.27, so even with a few stops, the rest of my positions pushed the account around 8.4% higher for the week. I'm very happy with that despite the market volatility.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
I had just one stop in this account during the week - Xchanging @118 for a small £13.30 profit. Better to stop out in small profit than to take a loss!
Overall account value is now £1136.79, which means about a 5.7% increase over last weeks near breakeven figure.
Hopefully the market will return into a settled move upwards, trade well guys!
Anyway heres a run down of how each of my accounts fared this week:
Account 1: Pro tips strategy account
I had a few stops during the week in this account, 6 in total actually (just had another peek) and all of them for losses albeit small losses well within my risk management rules. I made no new purchases due to not receiving any share tips during the week, I guess all the experts are still hungover from New Years.
Anyway the overall account value is now £1661.27, so even with a few stops, the rest of my positions pushed the account around 8.4% higher for the week. I'm very happy with that despite the market volatility.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
I had just one stop in this account during the week - Xchanging @118 for a small £13.30 profit. Better to stop out in small profit than to take a loss!
Overall account value is now £1136.79, which means about a 5.7% increase over last weeks near breakeven figure.
Hopefully the market will return into a settled move upwards, trade well guys!
Sunday 2 January 2011
02/01/11 Accounts Roundup
Happy new year!
Had my first stop out in a while on Friday, it was in account 2 on 'RM PLC' for a £22.50 profit. Shame it stopped out as it looked like it was going to turn into a decent winner. Anyway onwards we go, here are the figures for both accounts as they stand this week.
Account 1: Pro tips strategy accountOverall account value is now £1532.35, breakeven on last weeks figure at just £3 down.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
Overall account value is now £1074.01, about £3 down on last weeks figure so cant complain!
So both accounts held on to last weeks profits despite a small drop in the markets.
I should be investing more in account 2 as there is now £900 of trading funds free to trade with! So I really need to start scouring the entire London markets for opportunities to fire up this account again. Now Christmas is out of the way I will have alot more investing time on my hands!
Good luck next week, trade well!
Had my first stop out in a while on Friday, it was in account 2 on 'RM PLC' for a £22.50 profit. Shame it stopped out as it looked like it was going to turn into a decent winner. Anyway onwards we go, here are the figures for both accounts as they stand this week.
Account 1: Pro tips strategy accountOverall account value is now £1532.35, breakeven on last weeks figure at just £3 down.
Account 2: Tony Loton's 'position trading' strategy account
Overall account value is now £1074.01, about £3 down on last weeks figure so cant complain!
So both accounts held on to last weeks profits despite a small drop in the markets.
I should be investing more in account 2 as there is now £900 of trading funds free to trade with! So I really need to start scouring the entire London markets for opportunities to fire up this account again. Now Christmas is out of the way I will have alot more investing time on my hands!
Good luck next week, trade well!
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